Warum das Fehlen von faktischem Wissen so verhängnisvoll sein kann:
von LOKY … in my own holidays via Ipernity
More than three decades ago, two U.S. psychologists conducted an experiment that was equal parts funny and deadly serious.They spun a roulette wheel and when it landed on the number 10, they asked some whether the number of African countries was greater or less than 10 per cent of the United Nations. Most people guessed that estimate was too low. Maybe the right answer was 25 per cent, they guessed.
The psychologists spun their roulette wheel a second time and when it landed on the number 65, they asked a second group whether African countries made up 65 per cent of the United Nations. That figure was too high, everyone agreed. Maybe the correct answer was 45 per cent.
The difference in the estimates of the two groups was tied to the original number they were given. It made no difference that the number was meaningless, that it came from a roulette wheel.
Psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman described the error as caused by a phenomenon known as “anchoring” — when you don’t know the answer to something, whatever starting point you have plays a powerful role in determining what you think is the right answer.
[From Easy on the wall but hard on the panel]
… aber es ist Wochenende, und deshalb: futab!
Ähnliche Artikel:
- Keine ähnlichen Artikel
Posts
